Lucid Diligence Brief: ABL Bio and Eli Lilly Grabody-B license deal

Professional audiences only. Not investment research or advice. UK readers: for persons under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a)–(d) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005. Others should not act on this communication.

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Seven questions, 60-second thesis frame.

What changed, and when

ABL Bio announced on 12 Nov 2025 a license, research and collaboration agreement giving Eli Lilly multi-program rights to develop therapeutics using ABL’s Grabody platform, with 40 million dollars upfront and up to 2.562 billion dollars in milestones plus tiered royalties. (ABL Bio deal release) Independent outlets report the total deal value at about 2.6 billion dollars, note the multi-modality scope, and frame it as platform validation following ABL’s April GSK pact. (KED Global, BioWorld, BusinessKorea) On 14 Nov 2025, Lilly agreed to invest about 22 billion won in newly issued ABL shares, subject to HSR and other procedures. (ABL Bio equity release, Chosun Biz English)

60-second thesis frame

Platform momentum is real, but clinical translation remains the hurdle. Grabody-B uses an IGF1R-targeting brain shuttle to move large molecules across the BBB without neutralizing IGF1R signaling, and preclinical work supports brain exposure and efficacy in models. (Cell Reports Methods, 2022, Nature Parkinson’s, 2025) The Lilly pact adds resources and non-CNS optionality, with ABL signaling possible expansion into obesity and muscle diseases, while the April 2025 GSK deal validated CNS use cases. (ABL Bio deal release, Business Chosun English, ABL–GSK release) Competitive BBB shuttles are advancing toward first approvals, so execution speed, target selection, and human proof of delivery will decide whether this becomes a durable royalty stream or a science project. (Denali BLA accepted and review extended, Denali Q3 update)

The seven diligence questions

Clinical

• What human data, if any, already exist showing IGF1R-mediated shuttling materially increases target engagement in relevant CNS tissues, and how will Lilly and ABL quantify brain exposure for each modality? (Cell Reports Methods, 2022)
• For non-CNS expansions hinted by ABL, which obesity or muscle indications are mechanistically plausible, and do pharmacokinetic trade-offs emerge when the shuttle is fused to peptides, oligos, or enzymes versus antibodies? (ABL Bio deal release)

Payer or Access

• If programs enter obesity, how will payers treat novel, complex biologics relative to GLP-1 incumbents on step edits and outcomes documentation, and will administration setting drive site-of-care costs?
• For rare CNS indications, what evidence thresholds will US and EU regulators and HTAs require beyond biomarker shifts to support label and reimbursement, given precedents like CSF HS for MPS II? (Denali BLA precedent)

Ops or Adoption

• Can manufacturing, analytics, and stability be scaled for multi-component constructs at Lilly’s CMC standards across different modalities, and what are the comparability risks as formats evolve?

Competitive

• How does Grabody-B’s IGF1R approach compare to TfR-based TVs and next-gen shuttles on brain exposure, safety, species cross-reactivity, and clinical timelines, as Roche–Manifold and Denali advance? (Fierce Biotech on Roche–Manifold, Denali filings)

Team or Cap table

• Does Lilly’s 22 billion won equity add strategic alignment, and are there governance or collaboration committee structures disclosed that affect program prioritization or economics? (ABL Bio equity release)

Red flags

• Failure to demonstrate meaningful human brain delivery or tissue target engagement for at least one Lilly-ABL asset within the first clinical reads.
• Emergent safety from IGF1R-mediated shuttling in humans, for example hematologic or metabolic effects not seen preclinically. (Cell Reports Methods, 2022)
• Competitor BBB shuttle secures first approval or clear clinical superiority, compressing partnering appetite and future royalty value. (Denali review status)

Next catalyst

HSR clearance and administrative steps that trigger the 40 million dollar upfront, plus closing of Lilly’s 22 billion won equity, both flagged as near-term events by ABL. (ABL Bio deal release, ABL Bio equity release)

FAQ

• What exactly changed by ABL Bio’s license, research and collaboration agreement with Lilly news on 12 Nov 2025, and why does it matter for BBB delivery?
  ABL granted Lilly multi-program rights to use the Grabody platform with 40 million dollars upfront, up to 2.562 billion dollars in milestones, and royalties, expanding development beyond a single asset. This matters because Grabody-B is an IGF1R-based shuttle designed to carry large molecules across the BBB. (ABL Bio deal release, Cell Reports Methods, 2022)
• What is the regulatory path after ABL Bio’s license, research and collaboration agreement with Lilly news, and what are the next formal steps in the US, UK, and EU?
  The deal itself awaits administrative steps including HSR clearance before the upfront is paid; clinical candidates will follow standard IND/CTA paths. Timelines are not disclosed by Lilly, but ABL notes payment within 10 business days post-HSR. (ABL Bio deal release)
• Which endpoints or readouts could validate ABL Bio’s Grabody-B post the news on the collaboration agreement with Lilly, and how meaningful is the expected effect size?
  Early human proof would likely hinge on CSF or PET biomarkers and tissue target engagement that exceed historical CNS delivery baselines for large molecules, similar to biomarkers used in other BBB-shuttle programs. Regulators have accepted CSF heparan sulfate as a surrogate in a separate BBB-enabled program, offering a directional comparator. (Denali filings)
• What safety issues matter post-ABL Bio’s license, research and collaboration agreement with Lilly news and do they change real-world use? IGF1R shuttling has shown non-neutralizing activity and cross-species reactivity preclinically, but first-in-human safety, immunogenicity, and dose-exposure relationships will drive real-world viability. Any systemic IGF1R-related effects would be watched closely in Phase 1. (Cell Reports Methods, 2022)
• How will major US payers treat access after ABL Bio’s collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly, including prior auth or step edits, and are codes available?
  For rare CNS indications, payer focus is on clinically meaningful outcomes beyond biomarkers; for broader markets like obesity, GLP-1 step edits and outcomes tracking are standard and could constrain uptake for higher-complexity biologics. Coding is indication-specific and will depend on the eventual modality and route. (No direct payer policy yet for these pipeline assets.)

Publisher / Disclosure

Publisher: LucidQuest Ventures Ltd. Produced: 16 Nov 2025, 17:05 London. Purpose: general and impersonal information. Not investment research or advice, no offer or solicitation, no suitability assessment. UK: directed at investment professionals under Article 19(5) and certain high-net-worth entities under Article 49(2)(a)–(d) of the Financial Promotion Order 2005. Others should not act on this. Sources and accuracy: public sources believed reliable, provided “as is,” may change without notice. No duty to update. Past performance is not reliable. Forward-looking statements carry risks. Methodology: questions-first framework using public sources. No conflicts. Authors do not hold positions unless stated. © 2025 LucidQuest Ventures Ltd.

Entities / Keywords

ABL Bio; Eli Lilly; Grabody-B; Grabody platform; IGF1R; blood–brain barrier; BBB shuttle; bispecific antibodies; obesity; muscle diseases; CNS; ABL301 SAR446159; tovecimig ABL001; givastomig ABL111; ragistomig ABL503; HSR Act; royalties; GSK; Denali Therapeutics; Transport Vehicle; Roche; Manifold Bio; AbbVie; Aliada Therapeutics; KOSDAQ:298380; biomarkers; CSF heparan sulfate; accelerated approval; BioWorld; KED Global; BusinessKorea.

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